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Decoupling Won’t Work Like the US Hopes

博客文章

Decoupling Won’t Work Like the US Hopes
博客文章

博客文章

Decoupling Won’t Work Like the US Hopes

2020年12月29日 06:34 最後更新:06:35

The following is part of an article written by By Brantly Womack in December.

<China’s Space Program Suggests Decoupling Won’t Work Like the US Hopes>

The U.S. has long frozen China out of space cooperation. That hasn’t stopped China from making substantial progress.

China’s space program – a long-time victim of political distancing from NASA – is completing a trip to the moon to bring back lunar samples. As part of the Chang’e 5 mission, a lander gathered rocks from the surface of the moon and then transferred them to the orbiter, which plans to return to earth December 17.

On the same day the Chinese landed, NASA rather peevishly announced contracts for as little as one dollar for lunar soil to be collected by private space companies in the next few years, and a few days later it named the astronauts for future manned American lunar missions.

... in the space race, in 2019, China completed 33 successful orbital launches while the United States did 20. Next year it plans to launch the core unit of its own modular space station, to be finished by 2022 over the course of 10 missions. Further down the road, it has plans for Mars exploration and for a gigantic space-based solar power generator.

China’s progress in space has been achieved in spite of a complete decoupling by the United States. In contrast to NASA’s successful space collaboration with the Russians, the American agency has shunned China....., But the United States kept China out of the ISS. Congress then drove the decoupling home in 2011 with a law forbidding any collaboration between NASA and any Chinese entity, even to the point of barring Chinese visitors from entering NASA facilities. And there can be no U.S. components in any satellite launched by China.

China’s space program is thus the perfect test case for current American discussions of the advantages and disadvantages of decoupling. Is it a good idea to minimize collaboration and to cut China off from high-tech inputs? Can the United States get its allies to cooperate? Can China be isolated? Can its progress be stopped?

The short answer is that attempts to isolate China are more likely to result in American self-isolation and the loss of collaborative opportunities. Clearly NASA has not kept China earth-bound. But China would rather not go it alone in space. It is building its space station modules to be compatible with the docking requirements of the ISS, just in case the American mood changes. Meanwhile, NASA’s space exploration is chronically underfunded. Cooperation with Russia has been essential to ISS operations, despite continuing political tensions. Similarly, China’s enthusiasm as a first-timer could have been coupled with American know-how as an old-timer... ..

The statement or proposition made Brantly Womack may not  sound like music to the filthy ears of  Donald Trump, but it is valid and its validity has  stood and will stand the test of time.

K. Y. Yip(葉啟賢) Engineer
HKFDP




香港建設專業聯會

** 博客文章文責自負,不代表本公司立場 **

拜登曾明確表示,上任後要重新恢復美國在拉美地區的影響力, 他今年3月時告訴美國政治雜誌《美洲期刊》(Americas Quarterly)“特朗普對拉美及加勒比海國家的不作為以及忽略將在我上任的第一天終止。”

據路透社報導,自2018年以來,中國已超越美國,成為剔除墨西哥的拉丁美洲地區最大的貿易夥伴,從安第斯山脈地區進口銅礦、從阿根廷進口糧食、從巴西進口肉類等。中國現在是巴西、智利、秘魯、烏拉圭等拉美國家的最大貿易夥伴。中國阿根廷大豆的最大進口國。一名當地官員毫不諱言,認為“中國比美國對阿根廷更感興趣。特朗普並沒有關注阿根廷... 。”

雖然,特朗普曾明確警告拉丁美洲國家,不要和中國做生意,但當地政府官員與貿易數據顯示,過去四年來中國在拉丁美洲的影響力已超過美國。 因此拜登才有上面的說話。

此外, 數據顯示,中國也加大了對拉丁美洲地地區的投資與低息貸款,並參與各種能源項目、海港、鐵路、高速公路等基建項目。 這些方面美國由於財政赤字龐大,債務嚴重,根本沒有足夠多的資金投入到拉丁美洲,不能跟中國比較,拜登的影響力由何而來呢?

曾擔任奧巴馬顧問的Mark Feierstein 指責特朗普退出TPP的決定留下了一個真空,讓中國趁機進入拉美,填補空白。他直言:“特朗普的作為讓中國看起來像一個更好的伙伴。但這一切都將改變。”, 筆者認為他的說法有謬誤,中國之所以能進入拉丁美洲是由於中國可以滿足拉丁美洲國家的需求, 美國離開時因為美國債務太多而沒有能力滿足拉丁美洲國家的需求,也不重視拉丁美洲國家,並不是中國把美國道走。

同樣曾在奧巴馬政府中工作過的學者Benjamin Gedan認為,拜登將意識到拉美國家對於中國市場的依賴,並會“更加慷慨及積極的提供支持”, 筆者認為他的說法基於對抗, 中國有需求,拉丁美洲可以提供供應,這是正常的供求貿易關係,是美國把貿易當時成戰爭工具。

其實,中國和美國在拉丁美洲 根本沒有需要對抗,美國整天採取零和思維。而這種零和思維拉丁美洲國家也不可能接受,因爲他們只需要對他們有利的貿易以及投資,中國可以提供這些,美國也應該通過 正常合理公平的方式去滿足拉丁美洲的需求,從而增加美國的影響力,而不是破壞中國與拉丁美洲的正常交往,以削弱中國的影響力. 否則,美國必定失敗。

張振鴻 工程師
香港建設專業聯會