《華爾街日報》報道指，美國拜登政府正考慮對中國的補貼行為及對美國經濟的損害，知情人士透露，政府官員正在考慮根據美國貿易法第301條，對中國的補貼展開調查，調查結果可能導致新的關稅. 筆者認為，拜登政府以及美國商界已經很清楚地知道：特朗普由2018年啟動的貿易戰徵收中國貨品關稅，但沒有起到作用，即：製造業生產線沒有 像預期那樣撤離中國丶返回美國，中國也沒有作出任何讓步 特朗普的貿易戰目標基本上失敗了。
另外，拜登還希望與歐盟、日本等亞洲盟友合作，在世界貿易組織內爭取支持,. 來對付中國的補貼行為。其中一名知情人士稱，政府希望採取「全場緊逼」戰術。但知情人士說，白宮目前尚未做出最終決定。 筆者認為，拜登的所謂全場緊迫戰術基本上不會有功效 因為世界其他國家與中國有深厚的利益關係，中國帶給他們的利益是美國比不上的。他們不會為了美國而遭致損失，而美國又補償不了。
美國貿易代表戴琪和商務部長雷蒙多等拜登主要經濟顧問，將開會商議可能的調查事宜。美國貿易代表辦公室USTR要求外部顧問協助量化中國補貼行為對美國造成的損失，以便評估啟動調查後應採取的適當回應。301調查一般需要數月才能完成，白宮何時會宣布對這些問題的評估結果尚未知。估計白宮將把對中國採取行動可能造成的任何連帶損失，以及中國可能的報復行動會如何對美國勞工和農民產生影響，都考慮在內。
特朗普雖出於鬥争需要，他回前批評拜登的阿富汗撤軍行動"領導人搞不清狀況，拜登和他無能的政府在失敗中投降。"，但也講出了事實。就筆者這大半年來的觀察，發現美國總統拜登以及他的集團 沒有大略，非常平庸，應該不會有多大的作為。他們只是拿走自己職位上應有的特權，混日子。美國會繼續下沉。
蘇智成 測量師
香港建設專業聯會理事
香港建設專業聯會
** 博客文章文責自負,不代表本公司立場 **
To Compete With Beijing, the Quad Must Remain Pro-Asia, Not Anti-China
By Zachary Durkee,
August 28, 2021
Zachary Durkee is a researcher in the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security. He previously worked on regional and security policy in the Indo-Pacific as an intern at the U.S. Department of State.
The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, otherwise known as the Quad, has become a critical component in the United States’ strategy in the Indo-Pacific since it was revived in 2017. While not a formal military alliance, its four members — Australia, India, Japan, and the United States — are powerful and influential democracies that, collectively, possess the ability to push back against China’s growing regional assertiveness.
However, at its core, Southeast Asia is a region where the forces of great power competition push against critical and deep economic linkages with both the U.S. and China, thus complicating the strategic landscape. By necessity, the Quad must navigate the resulting complex set of regional attitudes toward the China-U.S. rivalry. This makes how the group identifies its purpose a delicate, but critical, balance to strike if it wants to effectively compete with Beijing in its own backyard. The first-ever in-person Quad summit, currently scheduled for late September, following the U.N. General Assembly, provides an opportunity to develop the contours of a Quad strategy to do just that.
When the group convened in Tokyo for a ministerial meeting last October, then-U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo expressed support for both institutionalizing the Quad and building out a “true security framework.” The Biden administration has so far focused more of its attention on non-security related issues – like vaccines, technology, and climate change. Now, with the Quad’s future a subject of continued debate, policymakers should look to the sentiments from across Southeast Asia for insights.
A recent influential public opinion poll of regional elites reveals that one of the greatest concerns expressed about the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is that the institution “is becoming an arena of major power competition and its member states may become proxies of a major power.” When it comes to perceived challenges facing the region, respondents ranked the top three as the COVID-19 pandemic, unemployment and economic recession, and widening socioeconomic gaps and rising income disparity.
A 2020 RAND report also found that “regional countries view the United States as having more diplomatic and military influence than China, and China as having more economic influence.” While wary of China’s economic inroads, the respondents ranked economic development above security concerns and believed that China’s economic influence possessed the capacity to “weaken U.S. military influence” while no evidence suggested that U.S. military influence achieved the inverse.
What all of this suggests is that countries across Southeast Asia seek autonomy and do not wish to be pushed into choosing sides when their economic futures depend on maintaining positive ties with both powers. The Quad is currently a double-edged sword in its capacity to either assuage or accentuate these regional anxieties. Put another way, the appeal of the Quad lies in being pro-Asia, not anti-China.
This does not mean neglecting security cooperation, which is critical to regional security and stability, but is rather about maintaining the group’s main strength: its ability to bring in partners with diverse interests to pursue common objectives on an issue-by-issue basis. This means using the Quad to divide labor and harness the collective strength of its members to pursue bold vaccine, infrastructure, climate, and supply chain initiatives — all of which play into addressing the pandemic- and economic-related challenges that dominate ASEAN concerns. India, which has been resistant to focusing the group too heavily on a security agenda, would be particularly supportive of this Quad approach to the region. Focusing the majority of Quad efforts in Southeast Asia on advancing health, economic, and development goals will also make European countries more receptive to collaborating with the United States in the region. Like ASEAN states, Europeans are wary of joining any U.S. initiatives that appear to exclude or box out the Chinese.
There may come a time that requires the Quad to formally demonstrate its collective maritime power in Southeast Asia. For now, though, to push back against China’s assertive maritime behavior and territorial claims in Southeast Asia, the Quad should rely on existing arrangements, such as the annual Malabar naval exercise, and joint statements, like that made in March following the virtual leaders’ summit. If China’s maritime aggression were to expand or intensify, however, the ASEAN nations should consider supporting a formal Quad demonstration of maritime strength, like a joint Quad sail or exercise in the region.
Zack Cooper and Adam P. Liff recently argued that “China strategy should flow from regional strategy, not the other way around.” Applying this logic to the Quad means articulating and executing a strategy that delivers on the needs and concerns of Southeast Asian states. Success will contribute to a dynamic and vibrant region that can hold its own in the face of competing pressures. When one combines regional concerns over growing U.S.-China polarization and differences within the Quad itself over the pace and extent of Quad security engagement, it becomes clear that remaining flexible and focused on building out a positive agenda is critical if the Quad aims to become a partner of choice in Southeast Asia.
The key point in the article, in Chinese , is"... （東南亞）地區國家認為美國的外交和軍事影響力比中國的大，而中國的經濟影響力更大”。受訪者將經濟發展排在安全問題之上，並認為中國的經濟影響力擁有“削弱美國軍事影響力”的能力，而沒有證據表明美國的軍事影響力能有相反的效果. 這些都表明，東南亞各國希望保持自主，不願在其經濟前景取決於與兩個大國保持良好關係的情況下被迫選邊站。換句話說，Quad的吸引力在於親亞洲而不是反中國。", cruel, but true to the US.
S. L. LI Engineer
HKFDP
