Brazilian orange production in key areas is expected to reduce by 24 percent this year due to severe heat waves and disease, leading to significant price increases on the global orange juice market.
Brazilian citrus industry predicts that in the 2024-2025 harvest season, orange production will fall to 232 million boxes (each box weighs approximately 40 kilograms), the lowest in 36 years.
"The average yield per hectare used to be 800 boxes of oranges. However, with citrus greening disease and other issues, we now produce only 560 boxes, meaning a 30 percent loss. This reduction is substantial given the total farming area," said Victor Krauss, who manages an 800-hectare citrus plantation in Casa Branca, Sao Paulo.
The yield drop has caused domestic orange prices to surge: the price of one box oranges has risen from 45 reais (about 8 U.S. dollars) last year to 80 reais (about 14 U.S. dollars) this year, a 78 percent increase.
As the world's largest exporter of orange juice, Brazil supplies over 70 percent of the global market. However, the sharp decline in orange production has led to a rapid increase in orange juice prices worldwide.
Industry data reveal that international orange juice futures prices have risen by about 54.7 percent this year. Despite a 9.3 percent decrease in the total volume of orange juice exports in the 2023-2024 harvest season, revenue increased by 21.3 percent to about 2.5 billion U.S. dollars.
Analysts argue that while rising prices may benefit orange farmers, the shortage and ensuing price hikes pose challenges to the juice processing industry.
"We've learned that many companies are forced to prioritize certain clients due to product shortages. In some places, consumers are unable to purchase orange juice and may turn to other beverages," said Fernando Gomes, researcher at the Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics (CEPEA).
To meet international demand, some non-traditional citrus-growing states in Brazil are beginning large-scale orange tree planting. However, it will take at least three years before these newly planted trees start bearing fruit.
Sharp decline orange production drives up juice price in Brazil
South Africa's sugarcane sector, a cornerstone of the country's agriculture, stands ready to further integrate into the vast Chinese market as the zero-tariff policy for African countries officially takes effect.
China's Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council announced Tuesday that from May 1, 2026 to April 30, 2028, the country will grant zero-tariff treatment to 20 African countries that have established diplomatic ties with China and are not classified as the least developed countries.
This follows the country's earlier decision to grant zero-tariff treatment on 100 percent of tariff lines, effective from Dec 1, 2024, for the 33 least developed African countries with which it maintains diplomatic relations.
In effect, the zero-tariff treatment has been expanded to cover all 53 African countries that maintain ties with China.
In KwaZulu-Natal province, one of South Africa's traditional agricultural powerhouses, local farmers are hopeful that their sugarcane products will soon reach Chinese consumers.
Pratish Sharma, a sugarcane grower in the province, has witnessed the industry endure an unprecedented winter of challenges, including volatile international prices and trade barriers. When he heard of China's zero-tariff policy, however, his hope returned.
"It'll make trading in China a lot easier. It will create a better revenue stream for exports of sugar to China. And agreements like these assist in rejuvenating our economy within the industry and making us more viable," the farmer said.
Official data shows that China has been South Africa's largest trading partner for 17 consecutive years, with bilateral trade exceeding 53.5 billion U.S. dollars.
Yet, the country's agricultural products currently account for only 0.4 percent of China's total agricultural imports, indicating huge growth potential.
Kulani Siweya, market and trade policy director at the South African Sugar Association, sees greater opportunity ahead for the country's roughly 25,000 registered sugarcane growers.
"Main regions or destinations are the U.S., Europe. [We are] exporting about between 35,000 to 70,000 tonnes to the China market. South Africa stands ready to give you quality sweet sugar that will satisfy the Chinese palate," said Siweya.
Beyond sugar, South African specialties such as citrus, macadamia nuts, wine, and other high-quality agricultural products are also expected to gain broader market access in China. This has encouraged farmers like Sharma to experiment with a wider range of crops.
"I've converted 18 hectares of sugar cane into macadamias. So that process of diversification has already begun. And with trade initiatives such as the zero-rated making all of us more sustainable and viable," Sharma said.
John Steenhuisen, South African Minister of Agriculture, said China's zero-tariff initiative will help reshape the agricultural sector.
"The tariff-free access that's been granted us is going to be a game changer for not only citrus but also for the entire agricultural sector. We're now going to be able to compete with excellent quality wines and other agricultural goods in that market in a far more competitive basis," said the minister.
South African sugarcane growers eye sweeter exports as China's zero-tariff policy for Africa takes effect
